The COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy in the first half of the year. The first quarter showed a decrease in the trade indicator by 3%, while the second — by 18,5%. Historically, this is the largest decline in the history of observations since 2005. Yet, as the organization’s director-general, Roberto Azevedo, observed, — “things could have been much worse”. The fall is presumed to have reached the bottom in the second quarter of 2020, while further, trade volumes are projected to grow by 2.5% per quarter.
Given that the pessimistic scenario implied a 32% annual decline in trade, the current result could be considered relatively good. The Director-General of the WTO believes that the agreed policy decisions have mitigated the situation. If fiscal, monetary, and trade policies move in the same direction, a full recovery of trade indicators to pre-COVID levels is possible in 2021.